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Posts Tagged ‘march madness’

2012 NCAA Bracket Methodology: Experience Matters; Weighted-Average-Experience (WAE)

March 14, 2012 2 comments

As I have written about lately, I feel very strongly that experience matters in basketball. Be it the NBA or the NCAA, the teams that win championships are usually stocked full of very good players who have a wealth of basketball experience.

This is the methodology I have used in picking my bracket for this year’s First Off The Bench Bloggers Cup. Although I think that experience really matter I couldn’t just simply calculate the average of a team’s experience (number of years each player has played college ball) and pick winners based on that; it would be much too simple and wouldn’t work at all, I don’t think. Read more…

Final Scores – FOTB Bloggers Cup

March 31, 2011 Leave a comment
Writer Method Round 4 Winners Round 4 Upsets Round 5 Winners (Final Four Teams) Round 5 Upsets Final Score
David SRS & Win Shares 3 1 / 4 1 1 / 1 59
Kai None 3 0 / 1 0 0 / 2 57
Marcus Team Names 2 0 / 1 0 0 / 3 48
Matt Bitterness 3 0 / 2 0 0 / 0 52
Sean 3PT/FT Percentage 3 3 / 6 0 0 / 1 55

The final tallies are in, and the overall winner for the first annual First Off The Bench NCAA Bloggers Cup is David, with a final score of 59.  This means that for the next year, he can claim that the advanced statistical metrics of SRS & Win Shares are the dominant method for deciding the winners of March Madness games.  Read more…

Round 3 Complete. Update!

March 23, 2011 2 comments
Writer Method Round 2 Winners Round 2 Upsets Round 3 Winners Round 3 Upsets Score After Round 3 Best Possible Score
David SRS & Win Shares 23 2 / 6 8 1 / 6 39 143
Kai None 25 4 / 8 10 1 / 4 45 133
Marcus Team Names 24 1 / 3 8 0 / 2 40 124
Matt Bitterness 24 3 / 9 8 1 / 4 40 152
Sean 3PT/FT Percentage 21 3 / 10 11 3 / 6 43 167

Rounds 2 and 3 are now complete.  Ignoring the fact that they should still be called Round 1 and 2 (the play-ins don’t count in our opinion), we’ll give a brief summary of our writer’s score totals, and give some initial thoughts on the success of each methodology.  The leaders in each category are in bold, and the last-place writer is in italics. Read more…

Sean’s NCAA Basketball Tournament Methodology: Who Can Stay Cool?

March 17, 2011 3 comments

This Badger Means Business

If I’ve learned anything from the past few March Madness tourneys, it is that when the game is on the line, the team that can either shoot the prayer of a three, or can stay calm and make free throws late in the game, always wins. This is why I based all my bracket choices on one thing. The team with the higher combined 3-point percentage and free throw percentage wins. Read more…

David’s NCAA Basketball Tournament Methodologies: SRS and Win Shares

March 14, 2011 5 comments

Final Four: Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, Pittsburgh

Biggest Cinderella:  Morehead State to the Round of 16

When reflecting on my annual futile journey down the road of NCAA March Madness gambling, it seems like the strategies I use each year vary, depending on my success the previous year.  My own intuition always told me that established programs won the final games but were vulnerable in the rounds of 16 and 8.  In a game with equal opponents, I’ll usually place my money on the team with better team defense, and if that factor is a toss-up, the team with a larger front court.  And of course, every single year I am obliged to place the Kentucky Wildcats in at least the Final Four, because they’ve been my team since I was a teenager.  Before we get started, my full bracket is below.  Read more…

First Off The Bench Blogger’s Cup

March 14, 2011 Leave a comment

It’s that time of year again…

We here at First Off The Bench are going to be having an intra-blog competition among our writers to see who is the smartest, craftiest, and most of all luckiest with their NCAA basketball tournament picks.

Each participating writer will be throwing up a quick introductory article explaining the strategies they used to determine their picks, and will be including their analysis on how they see the tournament playing out.

Scoring will be determined using the addicting-as-crack CBSSports application on Facebook, where participants receive an increasing number of points for each correct game picked. The maximum total score is 192.

The winner will earn the right to champion their picking methods as the best for the following year. We love all the feedback we can get, so let us know what you think of each writer’s selection style.

Game on!