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Posts Tagged ‘final four’

2012 NCAA Bracket Methodology: Experience Matters; Weighted-Average-Experience (WAE)

March 14, 2012 2 comments

As I have written about lately, I feel very strongly that experience matters in basketball. Be it the NBA or the NCAA, the teams that win championships are usually stocked full of very good players who have a wealth of basketball experience.

This is the methodology I have used in picking my bracket for this year’s First Off The Bench Bloggers Cup. Although I think that experience really matter I couldn’t just simply calculate the average of a team’s experience (number of years each player has played college ball) and pick winners based on that; it would be much too simple and wouldn’t work at all, I don’t think. Read more…

Final Scores – FOTB Bloggers Cup

March 31, 2011 Leave a comment
Writer Method Round 4 Winners Round 4 Upsets Round 5 Winners (Final Four Teams) Round 5 Upsets Final Score
David SRS & Win Shares 3 1 / 4 1 1 / 1 59
Kai None 3 0 / 1 0 0 / 2 57
Marcus Team Names 2 0 / 1 0 0 / 3 48
Matt Bitterness 3 0 / 2 0 0 / 0 52
Sean 3PT/FT Percentage 3 3 / 6 0 0 / 1 55

The final tallies are in, and the overall winner for the first annual First Off The Bench NCAA Bloggers Cup is David, with a final score of 59.  This means that for the next year, he can claim that the advanced statistical metrics of SRS & Win Shares are the dominant method for deciding the winners of March Madness games.  Read more…

David’s NCAA Basketball Tournament Methodologies: SRS and Win Shares

March 14, 2011 5 comments

Final Four: Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, Pittsburgh

Biggest Cinderella:  Morehead State to the Round of 16

When reflecting on my annual futile journey down the road of NCAA March Madness gambling, it seems like the strategies I use each year vary, depending on my success the previous year.  My own intuition always told me that established programs won the final games but were vulnerable in the rounds of 16 and 8.  In a game with equal opponents, I’ll usually place my money on the team with better team defense, and if that factor is a toss-up, the team with a larger front court.  And of course, every single year I am obliged to place the Kentucky Wildcats in at least the Final Four, because they’ve been my team since I was a teenager.  Before we get started, my full bracket is below.  Read more…