Home > NCAA > Kai’s NCAA Basketball Tournament Methodology: Method? We were supposed to have a method?

Kai’s NCAA Basketball Tournament Methodology: Method? We were supposed to have a method?

My, how I love March Madness. It’s the perfect time of year for an ignorant jackass to win money from all those try-hards with “systems” and “knowledge.” The most intricate statistic I used to make my bracket was the seed rank, and that’s only because it’s right on the bracket and I couldn’t avoid seeing it. I really try to be as ignorant as possible—that way, when I predict that twelfth seed Richmond will make it to the Sweet Sixteen, I can shrug it off as a joke if they lose in the first round. But if they do make it there, I look like a God Damn Wizard (GDW).

In poker, even a deuce-seven will beat an ace-king one-third of the time, making you look like a GDW. That 33 percent is known as your GDW potential. For this reason, I always picked seed nine over seed eight. It’s the most likely upset, thus increasing my GDW potential.

Click Below to View My Bracket

The East

My strategy for the East was: carefully compare how high the numbers beside the teams are, and then pick the lower (better-ranked) one. I know it’s pretty complicated, but I’ve taken some statistics courses and I think my calculations are correct. The two notable exceptions are North Carolina(2) over Ohio St.(1) and Xavier(6) over Syracuse(3). I chose NC because they made me some money back in 2005. My confidence in Xavier is largely Patrick Stewart-based.

Total GDW

Professor X can dunk with his mind. Suck it, Griffin.

The West

In the West, the upsets I picked are Penn State(10) over Temple(7) and Arizona(5) over Texas(4). Temple is a stupid name for a university and Texas is full of Texans.

This man was a cheerleader.

The Southeast

In the Southeast, I called Gonzaga making it to the third round, winning the first round because they have the coolest name of any school in the tournament. If you dispute this, you are wrong and your life is meaningless. They’ll win the second round because Brigham Young is screwed without their star player (I think I heard this on The Daily Show). I can’t even remember his name, but it still seems like the most likely time an eleventh seed will beat a third seed. My GDW potential grows stronger.

The Southwest

The Southwest I will divide into two halves. In the top half, Richmond goes to round three for reasons discussed earlier. I picked Richmond to be my favourite twelfth seed because they play Vanderbilt in the first round. Vanderbilt sounds like a school that makes its player wear monocles and top hats. A monocle would mess with your depth perception, so Vanderbilt will probably be weak beyond the arc.

The bottom half shall be known as the WTF section. Florida State trumps Texas (again, due to Texans) then loses to Notre Dame. Notre Dame plays Purdue, and somehow Georgetown is the winner. Then Georgetown plays Kansas and Notre Dame comes out on top. This may seem retarded—and indeed it might be—but it’s actually very complex. What I’m saying is that Georgetown will lose in the second round, but if they do win, they will also win the third. However, since I’m not counting on them getting to the third, I can still expect Notre Dame to win. And I’m betting Notre Dame will beat Kansas, too.

(None of that was based on anything. Which means if any part of it is right—I’m a God Damn Wizard.)

The Final Four

That leaves Notre Dame, North Carolina, Duke and Pittsburgh in the Final Four. I would greatly enjoy Duke losing in the semifinals, so I bet against them. What can I say? I don’t make the Emotional Hedge Bet. So North Carolina makes it into the finals against Pittsburgh. I chose Pittsburgh over Notre Dame because Really? Notre Dame? What the hell was I thinking?

North Carolina wins the tournament because they made me money that one time in 2005. (which, come to think of it, I never collected.)

Note to anyone who does worse than me: Your careful statistical analysis is inferior to pretend magic powers. You should be ashamed of yourself.

More Strategies from First Off The Bench:

Matt’s NCAA Basketball Tournament Methodology: The Bitter Bracket

David’s NCAA Basketball Tournament Methodology: SRS and Win Shares

Marcus’ NCAA Basketball Tournament Methodology: Battle of the Fiercest Team Names


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Categories: NCAA

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