2012 NCAA Bracket Methodology: The RUN System

Well, it’s that time of year again. March Madness begins in earnest tomorrow, and I’ll be looking to defend my championship from last year’s FOTB Bloggers Cup. My method last year revolved around ranking teams by a combination of SRS and Win Shares. For a quick refresher on those two terms, feel free to check out last year’s article here.

This year I’ve decided to expand my system by including a few new statistical categories that I think are important to tournament success. This was done mostly because my long-term plans include developing arthritis, and I figured that wasting a couple hours over at www.sports-reference.com/cbb (the holy grail of basketball statistics sites for nerds like myself) would help expedite the process.

The result is called the RUN system (Ridiculously Unnecessary Numbers).

Best of FOTB – Volume 1

In First Off The Bench’s first year, we managed to unleash about 50 articles into the wild. We’re proud of the effort our writers (mostly Matt) put in to keeping the site active, and we’ve enjoyed making a connection with some random sports fans across the globe. Here are our picks for the “essential” articles from Year 1 of FOTB, sorted by author.

Year 1 of FOTB – Top 5 News Events From a Historical Perspective

Wow, time flies. While I regret not being able to contribute more regularly to FOTB while I chase my dreams in grad school, Matt and the rest of the boys have done a good job at ensuring that this place doesn’t completely go to hell. Kudos to my more regular contributing colleagues on that front.

I would love to say that my absence can partially be attributed to my ongoing protest against Stern for failing to acquiesce to demands of having an NBA franchise back in Vancouver (although, a juicy NBA/NHL combo in Seattle with a hedge-fund owner is just starting to gain rumor momentum that might satisfy my northwest basketball needs), but in reality I won’t be my regular active self until this first year of school mercifully runs its course.

However, it wouldn’t be right to let the day pass without at least acknowledging some of the awesome events that happened in our first year that I felt have some sort of long-term historical significance. And yes, I’m refusing to acknowledge the NBA lockout, because it never happened.

Presenting David’s Top 5 Most Influential Real-Life Moments in Year 1 of FOTB:

2010-2011 FOTB NHL Awards

Another NHL regular season is almost complete, and so it’s time for the First Off The Bench NHL Awards for the 2010-2011 season. The NHL is technically a couple games from the end of the season, but with the majority of the playoff teams decided, it’s unlikely that any of the winners below will lose their hold on these fictional awards before the games run out. For the purposes of this list, we’re going to ignore any award that is decided by stats, such as the Presidents Trophy, Art Ross and Rocket Richard.

Final Scores – FOTB Bloggers Cup

Writer	Method	Round 4 Winners	Round 4 Upsets	Round 5 Winners (Final Four Teams)	Round 5 Upsets	Final Score
David	SRS & Win Shares	3	1 / 4	1	1 / 1	59
Kai	None	3	0 / 1	0	0 / 2	57
Marcus	Team Names	2	0 / 1	0	0 / 3	48
Matt	Bitterness	3	0 / 2	0	0 / 0	52
Sean	3PT/FT Percentage	3	3 / 6	0	0 / 1	55

The final tallies are in, and the overall winner for the first annual First Off The Bench NCAA Bloggers Cup is David, with a final score of 59.  This means that for the next year, he can claim that the advanced statistical metrics of SRS & Win Shares are the dominant method for deciding the winners of March Madness games. 

Round 3 Complete. Update!

Writer	Method	Round 2 Winners	Round 2 Upsets	Round 3 Winners	Round 3 Upsets	Score After Round 3	Best Possible Score
David	SRS & Win Shares	23	2 / 6	8	1 / 6	39	143
Kai	None	25	4 / 8	10	1 / 4	45	133
Marcus	Team Names	24	1 / 3	8	0 / 2	40	124
Matt	Bitterness	24	3 / 9	8	1 / 4	40	152
Sean	3PT/FT Percentage	21	3 / 10	11	3 / 6	43	167

Rounds 2 and 3 are now complete.  Ignoring the fact that they should still be called Round 1 and 2 (the play-ins don’t count in our opinion), we’ll give a brief summary of our writer’s score totals, and give some initial thoughts on the success of each methodology.  The leaders in each category are in bold, and the last-place writer is in italics.

David’s NCAA Basketball Tournament Methodologies: SRS and Win Shares

Final Four: Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, Pittsburgh

Biggest Cinderella:  Morehead State to the Round of 16

When reflecting on my annual futile journey down the road of NCAA March Madness gambling, it seems like the strategies I use each year vary, depending on my success the previous year.  My own intuition always told me that established programs won the final games but were vulnerable in the rounds of 16 and 8.  In a game with equal opponents, I’ll usually place my money on the team with better team defense, and if that factor is a toss-up, the team with a larger front court.  And of course, every single year I am obliged to place the Kentucky Wildcats in at least the Final Four, because they’ve been my team since I was a teenager.  Before we get started, my full bracket is below. 

First Off The Bench Blogger’s Cup

It’s that time of year again…

We here at First Off The Bench are going to be having an intra-blog competition among our writers to see who is the smartest, craftiest, and most of all luckiest with their NCAA basketball tournament picks.

Each participating writer will be throwing up a quick introductory article explaining the strategies they used to determine their picks, and will be including their analysis on how they see the tournament playing out.

Scoring will be determined using the addicting-as-crack CBSSports application on Facebook, where participants receive an increasing number of points for each correct game picked. The maximum total score is 192.

The winner will earn the right to champion their picking methods as the best for the following year. We love all the feedback we can get, so let us know what you think of each writer’s selection style.

Game on!

The Psychology Behind LeBron and Wade in Crunch Time

Last night, the Miami Heat lost another close game to an elite opponent, dropping an 87-86 decision to the surging Chicago Bulls.  The score itself shouldn’t be an enormous cause for concern for Miami.  They have only lost three games all year by a double-digit margin, indicating that they are one or two improved possessions on each side of the floor away from being frighteningly good most nights.  What should be closely monitored by general management in Miami is the psyche of its players, and whether they have the right toughness in place to make an extended playoff run.

Reports are floating around today that there was actual, no-joke, man-we-wish-our-coach-wouldn’t-advertise-this crying going on in the Miami locker room following the game (aka “Crygate”).  Cam Stewart of the Score had a great list today on his highly underrated show “24 in 30” that outlined the top six or seven reasons an athlete should be allowed to cry, and he was dead right in saying that it shouldn’t be allowed 63 games into the NBA regular season after a four game losing streak.

Penner Traded to Los Angeles Kings: Analysis

TSN has just announced that Edmonton Oilers F Dustin Penner has been traded to the Los Angeles Kings for prospect D Colten Teubert, a 1^st-round pick in 2011, and a conditional 3^rd-round pick in 2012 that could bump up to a 2^nd-rounder depending on the Kings playoff performance this year.

There are several reasons to like this deal for both sides, and I think it will be looked at as a solid hockey move for both teams, but for different reasons.